The Other Surge

Want to bet that 3 out of 5 Americans would identify this country as either the Michigan's Upper Peninsula?

Or possibly Russia?

Or is it one a’ them little Yurpean jobbers?

Like Holland maybe.

Or Jellystone?

This via the Asian Times.

Taliban poised for a big push
Oct 5, 2007

By Syed Saleem Shahzad

KARACHI - Following the success of their 2006 spring offensive, the Taliban were expected to make even further gains in Afghanistan this year. It never happened, due to strong pre-emptive action by Western coalition forces in Afghanistan and Pakistani military action against Taliban bases in the Pakistani tribal areas.

However, plans for a mass uprising on the back of renewed insurgency activity are far from shelved, and could be implemented with vigor at the end of the Islamic holy month of Ramadan next week, with tens of thousands of freshly trained men pouring into Afghanistan.

The key lies in Pakistan's tribal areas, from where the Taliban draw recruits, have training camps and run their logistics.

The Pakistani Taliban and Islamabad signed peace agreements in February 2005 and September 2006, under the terms of which the Pakistani Army cut back its troop levels in the tribal areas in return for militants stopping their attacks on the Pakistani Army and forces in Afghanistan.

In July the Taliban abandoned the treaties following the storming of the radical Lal Masjid (Red Mosque) in Islamabad by government troops. The mosque was an outspoken supporter of the Taliban movement and many militants used it as a sanctuary.

Since then, the Pakistani military has re-engaged militants in the tribal areas, severely choking their supply arteries.

In the past 10 days, however, militants have launched at least nine carefully planned operations against security positions in both North Waziristan and South Waziristan, and in towns in North-West Frontier Province (NWFP), including Bannu and Dera Ismail Khan, and in the Swat Valley.

As a result, all security operations against the Taliban and their al-Qaeda colleagues in the tribal areas have stopped, and by all accounts the army is running scared. It is estimated that Pakistan has 100,000 troops and 1,000 military posts along the Pakistan-Afghanistan border.

From the military's perspective, the situation is exacerbated by a political hiatus in Islamabad. President General Pervez Musharraf stands for re-election in Saturday's presidential polls, after which he is expected to step down as military head and prepare over the next few months for a civilian consensus government, most likely with former premier Benazir Bhutto. No new plans to tackle the problems in the tribal areas can be expected until this situation is settled.

The Taliban and their supporters now have the breathing space to replenish stocks and prepare for their new push into Afghanistan. It is envisaged that at least 20,000 fully trained fresh men from at least 16 entry points along the Durand Line that separates Pakistan and Afghanistan will be sent into Afghanistan.

According to people who spoke to Asia Times Online and who are familiar with the planning, the main points will be Noshki (in Balochistan province), Ghulam Khan (North Waziristan), Angur Ada (South Waziristan), Shawal (North Waziristan), and Chitral and Bajuar agencies.
…

I would not presume to pretend to understand the inter- and intra-tribal nuances of a culture halfway around the world, several centuries and a religion away from my own.

But I can fucking well read a newspaper.

And having read this, I cannot help but notice two things.

First, the ability to mass, train, fund and direct an army that can field 20,000 fresh recruits -- all accomplished without the ability to mount, say, sweet, multi-billion dollar ad campaigns…


(So very not work safe)

is sadly not the hallmark of an organization which is

beaten,


on the run,


marginalized



or starving in caves.

GEORGE W. BUSH: I don't know where he is. I hadn't heard much from him recently, and, you know, which means he could be in a cave that doesn't have an opening to it anymore. Or he could be in a cave where he can get out, or may have tried to slither out into neighboring Pakistan. We don't know.

But I will tell you this: We're going to find him.

And, second, if you read this entire article which detailing the resurgent influence and reach of the people who actually attacked us on 9/11, you will not find the word “Iraq” mentioned even once.

Every time a Republican repeats the lie that the people we are fighting in Iraq are the people who attacked us, they succeed only in continuing to distract our national attention away from where it should have been all along.

Maybe the British government has finally figured that out too.

Because, in in a country not far from there, the newest member of the Coalition of the Leaving votes with its feet...

Britain to cut its force in Iraq by half
By Kim Murphy
Los Angeles Times Staff Writer

2:52 PM PDT, October 8, 2007

LONDON -- Britain will cut its force in Iraq by half in the spring, shrinking the commitment of America's leading coalition partner to 2,500 troops engaged mainly in "training and mentoring" of Iraqi forces, Prime Minister Gordon Brown said today.

The announcement goes much further than the 1,000-troop reduction the prime minister announced in Baghdad last week, and sets the stage for Britain's exit as an active combat participant in the still-troubled region of southern Iraq.

"We will continue to be actively engaged in Iraq's political and economic development. We will continue to assist the Iraqi government and its security forces to help build their capabilities -- military, civilian and economic -- so that they can take full responsibility for the security of their own country," Brown told the House of Commons.

But the strategy he laid out -- signaling a departure from predecessor Tony Blair -- calls for Britain to move out of active combat into a staged "overwatch" role in Iraq, with only "limited" capability for "reintervention" by spring.

The announcement marks an important step in the effort to renew stability in Iraq. While U.S. forces have been bogged down in Baghdad and other conflict-ridden regions to the north, they have been able to rely on British forces to guard southern Iraq, a region that includes some of the nation's biggest oil fields, its only access to the sea, a 200-mile-long border with Iran and the coalition's main supply line from Kuwait.

…