Back To The Emerging Republican Future

You may observe them in reverent silence, but please do not disturb our nation's Important Thinkers as they think their Important Thoughts.

First, from The National Journal, two days ago:

THE EMERGING REPUBLICAN ADVANTAGE

The idea of an enduring Democratic majority was a mirage. How the GOP gained an edge in American politics—and why it’s likely to last.

BY JOHN B. JUDIS

Ever since the Republican triumph in November, Democrats have been casting around for rationalizations. One theory, espoused by President Obama, blamed the party's dramatic loss on the simple fact that too many Senate races had taken place in conservative states. "This is probably the worst possible group of states for Democrats since Dwight Eisenhower," Obama remarked on Election Day. Other analysts pointed to the "six-year itch"—which often condemns the party of a second-term president to defeat during the midterm elections. Still others chalked up the results to the fact that midterm elections (with their low turnout) inherently favor Republicans, while presidential elections (with their high turnout) inherently favor Democrats. "We have two separate Americas voting every two years," wrote Markos Moulitsas Zuniga, the founder of Daily Kos. "And Democrats can win easily with the one, and Republicans can win easily with the other."

Indeed, in the wake of the midterms, the Center for American Progress optimistically predicted that, if 2016 voting patterns resemble those from 2012, the rising number of voters of color "will not only make it easier for Democrats to win states that they previously won in 2012. These demographic changes are also creating an opportunity for Democrats to win back states they lost in 2012."

None of these observations are wrong, as far as they go. It is undeniable, for instance, that the current Democratic coalition does better in presidential years than it does in midterm elections. Yet all of these explanations have a common problem: They obscure the possibility that 2014 was not an isolated event but rather the latest manifestation of a resurgent Republican coalition.

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Second, from America's leading Bloodthirsty Neoconservative journal of record, almost exactly 13 years ago.  Also the court will please note for the record the name of the author of this brilliant analysis:

The Reemerging Republican Majority

Will Bush's popularity transform his party?

FEB 11, 2002, VOL. 7, NO. 21 • BY DAVID BROOKS

There's a reason the former McCainiacs were exhilarated by the State of the Union address--especially the foreign policy part--whereas some other conservatives, such as the globally cautious Robert Novak, appeared less so. Politically the possibility is this: If you take the traditional Bush Red America base, and you take the regions where McCain did best, in the suburbs of the coasts and of the upper Midwest, then meld those two voting blocs into a single coalition, Bingo! You've got your governing majority.

Now, if this strategy is going to succeed, the Bush strategists must first convince themselves that this is not what they are doing. A couple of members of the administration would rather lose the next election than admit that they are borrowing themes from the Arizona showboat. Nonetheless, the events of September 11 have shaken the political landscape and so made it possible for the Bushian lion to lie down with the McCainiac lamb (or vice versa)--at least on a policy level, if not on a personal level.

President Bush has broken the libertarian grip on the GOP. (Not only did he call for a grand foreign policy mission, he called for expanding Head Start and liberalizing welfare benefits for immigrants.) But there is still some way to go if he is to win over the independent voters from Purple America (the ones who are halfway between Red and Blue). The final McCainiac initiatives that Bush has not yet co-opted have to do with reform...

I have got to find a way to get in on this racket.