Friday, June 24, 2016

#Brexit


Not much else to say.

8 comments:

tjan said...

As a resident of the EU, the UK exit just seems anarchic to me. There was a reasonably clear future for the UK if it remained in the EU. With this vote, the future is completely unknown. The pro-leavers have plunged the UK into the abyss with no clear idea of where the bottom of the abyss might be. The similarities with Trump supporters are striking; we have no idea what we'd get, but things sure will be different. Awful.

Adam said...

Every now and then you read stories about political scientists that predict that the United States will soon tear itself apart in a paroxysm of partisanship or Civil War Part 2-- but who predicted the UK (soon to be the former UK) would beat us to the punch?

And is it worth pointing out that this is an instance where the conservative party, and more specifically its leadership, promised its base something they never expected to have to deliver on, and were shocked when said base ate them alive? At least for their sake the liberals (Scotland, Ireland) will have an opportunity to pull the cord on the lifeboat and jettison to safety, but... wow. For all of the secession talk you hear in this country, it's still one of the few things you don't bring up in polite company on the Sunday Shows. I guess we can be thankful for that small favor.

Paul Wartenberg said...

Everything I know about the Leave movement - that it involved rising anger over the refugee/immigrant issues - suggests it's a Nativist push similar to the one Trump is riding here in the US.

If anyone wants a good look what a Trump win in November is going to look like, just look at the utter chaos in the UK right now.

This is not some abstract "what if" role-play. This is not some Utopian simple solution where the hero wins and there's a big parade and a cute girl kisses him. These elections - even a non-binding referendum (Parliament can still vote against this, they have final say) - have serious and sometimes immediate consequences to them.

A Prime Minister at the height of his power - coming off a major party win from one-two years ago - is resigning in disgrace. His party is going to be in turmoil. The opposition party in Labour is going to have their own leadership crisis over this. The Nativist/Fascist party in UKIP is now crowing as if they own the place. That's just in England.

Scotland and Northern Ireland are looking to jump out of the UK now. Whatever exists of the British Commonwealth has got to be affected by all this as well. Queen Elizabeth is going to be royally - literally - pissed.

Europe is going to react with their own independence referenda: Greece obviously, but also Italy and maybe Spain and some of the lower-end nations who can't handle the German-backed austerity measures anymore.

We're watching right now the entire global economy tanking. We could be witnessing a meltdown greater than the Big Shitpile collapse of 2007-2008.

We as a planet must have really angered the Old Gods and the New. I'm usually more optimistic than this, but I swear this is feeling like an End Times moment, this whole year is.

Fritz Strand said...

Now, irony of ironies, the Germans will be left to deal with the ever growing fascist governments of eastern Europe (Poland, Hungary, Austria).

bowtiejack said...

Couldn't agree more with the comments here that Brexit and Trump are symptoms of a larger clusterfuck of stupidity with unpredictable dire consequences.

But you SF fans (any here?) who want a look at how all this might turn out will want to watch the first 45 minutes of H.G. Wells' The Shape of Things to Come.

https://youtu.be/kn76zoYjr4k

RUKidding said...

I'm hunkering down and really having a good lookie-lou at my investments (such as they are). Hope I'm wrong, but the economic signs ain't good. Word to the wise: stockpile while you again. Agree with a prior commenter, we could be heading to a worse crash than 2007/2008. Frankly, this is ain't just about Old Blighty anymore.

And whilst all this shit storm is happening, Republican Trump is off hawking his golf links in Scotland... probably oblivious to anything but figuring out how to screw up some buckeroo$ for himself. Yeah, that's Just. The. "Leader." We. Need. Now.

proverbialleadballoon said...

The pound sterling fell to a 30-year low against the $ last night, in minutes, as it became clear Leave would prevail. The dow jones opened at 500 points down this morning, wiping out around half the gains it's made this year. Next week I imagine will be bad, too. I'm not as pessimistic as Paul Wartenberg, although I agree where this could lead to the collapse of the EU. Because from the American perspective, the $ is only stronger and US corporations are only more attractive. If I lived in the EU, especially in one of the wealthier creditor countries, I'd be shitting my pants right now.

Next week is the time to put $ in whatever US small business mutual fund you have, or book that ticket to Paris for your second honeymoon. This ain't gonna be good for the portfolio, though, no, this'll wipe out all of this year's gains and probably more.

What would put the global economy at risk, and as Paul Wartenberg made the (correct) connection, would be a trump election. That would be Brexit times 10, or 20.

But yeah, northern Europe is totally shitting their pants right now. The EU wasn't in good shape before last night. And if you were thinking about retiring living anywhere in the next year, well that ain't happening.

Don P said...

@Fritz Strand -- and 71 years later, without firing a shot, the Germans have finally won WW2 in Europe. If you can't beat 'em, buy 'em.