Wednesday, October 30, 2024

Not Looking Good For Obama

And h/t to Digby for remembering this.

From The Harvard Gazette, December 15, 2011:

Harvard [Institute of Politics] poll predicts Obama loss

Millennials view Mitt Romney as strongest Republican

A new national poll of America’s 18- to 29-year-olds by the Institute of Politics (IOP) at the Harvard Kennedy School finds more millennials predict President Barack Obama will lose his bid for re-election (36 percent) than win (30 percent).

From The Washington Post, October 25, 2012:

Post-ABC tracking poll: Romney 50 percent, Obama 47

Republican Mitt Romney has edged ahead of President Obama in the new Washington Post-ABC News national tracking poll, with the challenger winning 50 percent of likely voters for the first time in the campaign.

As Romney hits 50, the president stands at 47 percent, his lowest tally in Post-ABC polling since before the national party conventions...

And just as the challenger has leaped ahead on this score, he has effectively neutralized what has been a consistent fall-back for Obama: economic empathy. In the new poll, 48 percent say Obama is more in tune with the economic problems people are having, and nearly as many, 46 percent, say Romney is the one who is more in touch. Just two weeks ago, Obama had a nine-point lead on the question.

From Business Insider, October 25, 2012:

Gallup: Mitt Romney holds 3-point lead over Obama

Republican nominee Mitt Romney remained 3 points ahead of President Barack Obama in today's Gallup daily tracking poll, a day after Obama had closed the gap with his Republican rival among likely voters...

From NPR, October 29, 2012:

NPR Poll Finds Presidential Race Too Close To Call

The latest and last NPR Battleground Poll for 2012 shows former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney holding the narrowest of leads in the national sample, but trailing President Obama in the dozen states that will decide the election.

The poll adds evidence that the Oct. 3 debate between the two men redefined the race. But the movement toward Romney that emerged after that night in Denver also seems to have stalled after the race drew even — leaving the outcome difficult to call.

From The Wall Street Journal, October 31, 2012:

Rove: Sifting the Numbers for a Winner (by Karl Rove)

A crucial element: the mix of Democrats and Republicans who show up this election.

It comes down to numbers. And in the final days of this presidential race, from polling data to early voting, they favor Mitt Romney.

He maintains a small but persistent polling edge. As of yesterday afternoon, there had been 31 national surveys in the previous seven days. Mr. Romney led in 19, President Obama in seven, and five were tied. Mr. Romney averaged 48.4%; Mr. Obama, 47.2%. The GOP challenger was at or above 50% in 10 polls, Mr. Obama in none...

Desperate Democrats are now hanging their hopes on a new Quinnipiac University/New York Times/CBS News poll showing the president with a five-point Ohio lead. But that survey gives Democrats a +8 advantage in turnout, the same advantage Democrats had in 2008. That assumption is, to put it gently, absurd.

...My prediction: Sometime after the cock crows on the morning of Nov. 7, Mitt Romney will be declared America's 45th president. Let's call it 51%-48%, with Mr. Romney carrying at least 279 Electoral College votes, probably more.

From The Daily Caller, November 4, 2012

George Will predicts 321-217 Romney landslide

Add Washington Post George Will to the landslide column, along with Fox News Channel’s Dick Morris and the Washington Examiner’s Michael Barone.

On this weekend’s broadcast of “This Week with George Stephanopoulos” on ABC, Will revealed his prediction and added a bonus surprise by saying traditional Democratic state Minnesota would go for Romney, as well...

There's more.  Much more.  Dick Morris, for example, but I like you too much to inflict that on you.  Point is, it's mere days from the 2012 election and, frankly, Obama looks doomed.

Doooooomed, I tells ya!


Burn The Lifeboats

1 comment:

Jon Sitzman said...

Good morning, DG and BG!

"Hopium" has become a popular word. Similarly "copium," with less pleasant connotations. Maybe I'm smoking one or both of those but -

I've got a good feeling. I think Democrats are definitely going to pick up House seats. Against odds, I think Democrats will hold the Senate. Unfortunately the odds there look long, but this is an atypical election with a severe outlier candidate at the top of the GOP ticket. It's possible.

I definitely think VP Kamala Harris will be our next POTUS.

I think much of the current polling is falsely skewed and red-flated by junk polls from GOP-aligned pollsters. (And the fucking media is greedily gobbling it up. We can't even say "falling for it" any more - they know what's happening and welcome it.)

Lawrence O'Donnell rightly lambasted the US political media for deliberately misinterpreting Pres. Biden's fiery rhetoric towards Tony Hinchcliffe's "comedy" set at Trump's MSG rally. I'm hoping this sort of media-criticizing-media coverage becomes more common, and that more viewers see it. Our political press is worse than an embarrassment at this point - it is effectively a hostile actor towards Democrats and small-d democracy. (Nothing new to you, I know.) A loss of 200k subscribers (more now) by WaPo is frankly far short of what needs to happen, IMO.

I think it's going to be okay. It might be really okay - Oval and both houses of Congress in Dem control. SCOTUS will still be an issue (well after the election chaos subsides), but I hold hope that even that fuckery can be addressed.

Stay safe. Happy Hallowe'en. Thanks for all you do.