Tuesday, April 24, 2007

A New World


Holy Crap!

Anyone who would have posited this even half-seriously just a few hundred years ago would have been witch-stake bait.

Hell, in memory yet green it was once the height of haughty lumpen wisdom to look down one’s nose at rocket club dorks who suggested that men would one day walk on the Moon.

And now?

We have a potentially habitable fucking planet found outside our little neighborhood, and yet this news is not incised in 146-point Times New Roman font on the front page of every paper on Earth.

Sure it’s not exactly a weekend buggy ride from here, but it’s not even the lead story anywhere but YahooNews. Which is kinda sad, but also kinda cool I suppose, because like cell phones or laptops or a dozen other revolutions that have rocketed from startling and “gee whiz”, to ubiquitous and “yeah, so?” right before our eyes, maybe (with the exception of the Christopath army of darkness) the age and size and complexity of the Universe have become an accepted thing.

Big Bang? Evolution? C’mon Herbert, get with it. I mean all the kids are doing it.

Here’s the tale.

Potentially habitable planet found
By SETH BORENSTEIN, AP Science Writer 7 minutes ago
For the first time astronomers have discovered a planet outside our solar system that is potentially habitable, with Earth-like temperatures, a find researchers described Tuesday as a big step in the search for "life in the universe."

The planet is just the right size, might have water in liquid form, and in galactic terms is relatively nearby at 120 trillion miles away. But the star it closely orbits, known as a "red dwarf," is much smaller, dimmer and cooler than our sun.
There's still a lot that is unknown about the new planet, which could be deemed inhospitable to life once more is known about it. And it's worth noting that scientists' requirements for habitability count Mars in that category: a size relatively similar to Earth's with temperatures that would permit liquid water.

However, this is the first outside our solar system that meets those standards.

"It's a significant step on the way to finding possible life in the universe," said University of Geneva astronomer Michel Mayor, one of 11 European scientists on the team that found the planet. "It's a nice discovery. We still have a lot of questions."

The results of the discovery have not been published but have been submitted to the journal Astronomy and Astrophysics.

Alan Boss, who works at the Carnegie Institution of Washington where a U.S. team of astronomers competed in the hunt for an Earth-like planet, called it "a major milestone in this business."

The planet was discovered by the European Southern Observatory's telescope in La Silla, Chile, which has a special instrument that splits light to find wobbles in different wave lengths. Those wobbles can reveal the existence of other worlds.

What they revealed is a planet circling the red dwarf star, Gliese 581. Red dwarfs are low-energy, tiny stars that give off dim red light and last longer than stars like our sun. Until a few years ago, astronomers didn't consider these stars as possible hosts of planets that might sustain life.

The discovery of the new planet, named 581 c, is sure to fuel studies of planets circling similar dim stars. About 80 percent of the stars near Earth are red dwarfs.

The new planet is about five times heavier than Earth. Its discoverers aren't certain if it is rocky like Earth or if its a frozen ice ball with liquid water on the surface. If it is rocky like Earth, which is what the prevailing theory proposes, it has a diameter about 1 1/2 times bigger than our planet. If it is an iceball, as Mayor suggests, it would be even bigger.

Based on theory, 581 c should have an atmosphere, but what's in that atmosphere is still a mystery and if it's too thick that could make the planet's surface temperature too hot, Mayor said.

However, the research team believes the average temperature to be somewhere between 32 and 104 degrees and that set off celebrations among astronomers.
Until now, all 220 planets astronomers have found outside our solar system have had the "Goldilocks problem." They've been too hot, too cold or just plain too big and gaseous, like uninhabitable Jupiter.

The new planet seems just right — or at least that's what scientists think.



So is it "The Gold at the Starbow's End"?

· Synopsis: The purpose of an eight-man mission to the Alpha Centauri system may not be to find the Alpha-Aleph planet after all.

· Review: Very good story with a few surprises and some cool exposition. The astronauts, four couples sent with the purpose of populating the planet, bide their huge amounts of free time with learning the intricacies of science to a point that surpasses common human knowledge. Meanwhile, the scientist who organized the trip is grilled over the true purpose of the mission. The narrative remains engrossing as it swaps between reports from the spaceship and the latest happenings in Washington.


Or "JEM"?

Sometime in the near future, the twin forces of overpopulation and environmental depletion have led the nations of the world to form three major economic blocs, each named after the resources they still possess in enough abundance to supply the rest of the world.

Kept at peace by runaway nuclear proliferation, which has given even some of the smaller nations the bomb, the Food Bloc (which feeds the world), the Energy Bloc (which still produces fossil fuels) and the People Bloc (which exports cheap labor) all exist in an uneasy truce, fueled by their mutual economic need. But the resentments simmering beneath the surface are so strong that the stalemate cannot exist for long.

Possible hope arrives when astronomers discover a habitable planet circling a distant sun.


Escapism my ass.

Anyone tells you that science fiction is escapist, you tell them to jam an allotropic iron torpedo up their bikini area and then turn off its inertialess drive.

18 comments:

Anonymous said...

One face, always, toewards its primary, Drifty. And flares. Big fucking flares.

The fly in the ointment is the fact that this body orbits a red dwarf, Gliese 581.

It's been 20+ years since I ran through the calculations. But I ran the numbers for so many stars in the Greenwich Catalog of stars within 25 parsecs of the Sun that I can recall the bottom line from memory.

When you go down the Hertzsprung-Russell diagram from hot massive stars to cool light ones, what you see is that the luminosity drops faster than the mass does. The rate of decrease scales nonlinearly with mass. A star of 1/3 solar mass might have a luminosity - in other words, an energy output - of 1/1000 that of Sol.

Hence, in order to have earthlike average temperature, a planet must be much deeper in the gravity well of a smaller star.

What this gives you is much greater differential gravitational force. That's what gives Earth its tides.

This is also what locks Mercury into a configuration where one face always faces Sol, its primary.

Never night that follows a day on Mercury. You always either bake or freeze.

So for a planet orbiting a red dwarf, like 581 c, an average temperature "somewhere between 32 and 104 degrees" does not mean "life-supporting". Nowhere on such a world will you see that average. In dayside, it will be much higher, because that side never sees night. Nightside, it will always be much lower.

Imagine the storms kicked up by convection if that planet really does have an atmosphere!

This gets better.

Because the smaller a star gets - again, as you drop down through the H-R diagram - the relative magnitude of the flares at a given effective luminosity also grows by orders of magnitude.

In other words, even if the planet rotated properly, you'd be living under a solar flame-thrower from time to time.

Of course, it is also the small mass of the star which allows astronomers to detect an extrasolar planet more easily in the first place. The lighter the primary (and the heaver the planet), the more "wiggle" there will be in the star's own trajectory. Remember the quote: "Those wobbles can reveal the existence of other worlds". The "wobbles" the author speaks of are those of the primary, as it orbits the mutual center of mass - which is further out from its center because of its low mass relative to its planet.

Hate to be a spoilsport. But I'll start to get excited when astronomers start finding objects like these around G and K class stars. Which they surely will do.

Oh, and Drifty ... PLEASE try to convert nonsense numbers like "120 trillion miles" into light years or parsecs, OK? Measuring interstellar distances in units of miles may be numerically as accurate as using light years or parsecs. But it is far less informative. "120 trillion miles" hits the brain like gibberish. But "20.5 light years distant", a figure for Gliese 581 which I just glommed off the Internet, is far more informative. That would put it in the immediate neighborhood of Sol, about 5 times further away then the Alpha Centauri binary system.

Stormcrow

Anonymous said...

i remember when the possibility of life on mars -- drawing from some kind of spectroscopic readings of meteor debris in antarctica -- was confirmed.
the times had that story OFF-lead (i.e., the SECOND biggest story of the day).
tough crowd.

Mister Roboto said...

Well, as for that last science fiction story, I'm as dubious about the idea of civilization being made viable by it having a new planet on which to expand, as y'all skeptics are about astrology and Tarot cards. Last I heard, the fastest the most speculative physics can realistically imagine a spacecraft being able to travel, is half the speed of light. So our theoretical spacecraft would need to have enough fuel and water and provisions for a forty year journey through the cold blackness of space, eighty years round trip. Daunting to say the very least. Even if an exploratory mission were possible, I really have my doubts about full-on colonization or terraforming or anything such as that.

My, we commentors are a bunch of wet blankets this morning, aren't we? Must be the relentlessly crappy April weather.

Anonymous said...

There is a BIG interactive travelling exhibit now showing at the Miami Museum of Science. It is called "The Science of Aliens" and features speculative alien ecosystems created by top scientists using the latest data. One of the ecosystems is on a hypothetical planet orbiting a red dwarf star. For more information and some cool photos go to www.miamisci.org. The exhibit originally appeared at the Science Museum in London. The London Science Museum still has an interactive website up. Go to www.sciencemuseum.org.uk/aliens.

Anonymous said...

Stormcrow,
I'll pack extra SPF4000 and woolsweaters if you'll navigate the next ship outta here..

Anonymous said...

Loveandlight -

* You cherry-pick the planets you want to colonize, of course. 581 c is probably a bad idea for the reasons I have already outlined. But it isn't the only planet in nearby space, by a long shot.

* "Cold blackness" isn't a phrase that helps rational thinking very much. Particularly when you recall that space is a vacuum that will make heat dissipation an issue for an interstellar spacecraft. Think "thermos bottle". That spacecraft won't be able to lose heat by convection or conduction, only by radiation.

* A forty year one-way trip does indeed push present-day limits. We may not be ready for this until and unless we get to the point where we can either move fast enough to take advantage of relativistic time dilation, or put the passengers into hibernation, or both. The first option brings in issues of it's own, particularly exposure to radiation over long periods.

Stormcrow

Anonymous said...

AWESOME...



a

LENSMAN


reference


!!


pretty good, pretty neat...

Anonymous said...

Anyway, how do you know there aren't people living there already? Nazis or 1920s gangsters, f'rinstance?

Anonymous said...

Anyway, how do you know there aren't people living there already? Nazis or 1920s gangsters, f'rinstance?

Perhaps because they might find a surface gravitation estimated at 2.2 Earth gravities a bit much? :)

Stormcrow

Dick Cox said...

The earthlike planet was front page news here in southwest Germany.
Big color picture.
Right above the Tillman/Lynch story.

Anonymous said...

Holy Klono's titanium testicles!

The Lensman lives!

Anonymous said...

The interesting thing is that the Tillman/Lynch story is getting some space in newsprint somewhere closer to Seattle than 20.5 light years away. Closer even than southwest Germany. Or other places more clearly part of the civilized world than Darkest America these days.

Its getting coverage in the American poodle press. It is actually being written up by American "reporters", and what's more, it's actually being published.

Well, Faux News is giving the story a pro-Bush spin. But if that lot came any closer to telling the truth, they'd spontaneously combust.

Which is just one more reason why I am now fairly sure that the oligarchy that sits behind the Republican Noise Machine as silent partner has decided that W has become more of a liability than an asset.

Stormcrow

driftglass said...

Stormcrow,

Ah well. 2-3 generations our g.g.g.g.great-granders will be Jinxian.

We're an adaptable bunch :-)
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jinx_(Known_Space)

stonypillow,
In the real world, I gave up refering to this Administration as having the morals of Thionite smugglers. Couldn't take the stares.

eddie blake,
vanBuskirk Lives!

Loveandlight,
I wouldn't expect colonization to begin at all for a century, and never in bulk. More for insurance purposes and because, well, that's what we do. But the genre helps people think about the future in rational, creative ways, and that's a great goodness.

Not necessarily gonna be a fun future, but it's best to be prepared.

ForteanFanatic,
Thanks for the tip.

Mister Roboto said...

Stormcrow:

I hadn't thought of hibernation. That would change the equation, I would think. I do recall reading that in the vacuum of space, you don't shed heat the way you on the surface of the Earth (especially when that surface is Milwaukee, or at least for ten months of the year). It just gives me pause to think how inhospitable is the environment beyond our lovely blue biosphere.

Ivory Bill Woodpecker said...

Hmmm...Earthlike planet, but bigger, with heavier gravity, orbiting a red sun...did somebody say "Krypton"? :)

From the Swamp of Solitude, IBW

Mister Roboto said...

IBW:

Not only that, but they recently discovered Kryptonite in Siberia.

Anonymous said...

Fr**K!!! The filthy Earthling scum have discovered our secret home planet and staging ground for the coming invasion of their puny planet. No matter!!! Charge up my Bop Gun and alert the Funkentelechy! My Darnusian Legions are going to find out whether or not human ass tastes just like Flaurodian Zoltarb!!!

Anonymous said...

IBW..



ill keep

a

PHANTOM ZONE

projector

handy

along with my

DeLAMETER..


(for

CLOSE

encounters,

of course)